As per the mathematical models of the progression of Covid-19, Delhi might possibly have 5.5 lakh cases by the end of July, several scientists while stating have said that community transmission of the disease may have started a while ago.
The Deputy Chief Minister of Delhi Manish Sisodia, while warning of the more trouble ahead, on Tuesday said that the number of COVID-19 cases could rise to 5.5 lakh by July 31. This is a lot higher than the city’s tally of 31,309 cases on Wednesday. India’s total count of COVID-19 cases is 2,76,583.
Samit Bhattacharya, the mathematics professor and researcher at the School of Natural Sciences at Shiv Nadar University, stated that it was found out by the model that he used for India that there could be around 8 to 10 lakh cases by mid or end of July in India. So getting these many cases (5.5 lakh) in Delhi won’t be surprising, as the number of cases is increasing daily.
As asserted by virologist Upasana Ray, senior scientist at CSIR-IICB (Kolkata), epidemiologists and statisticians can only comment on the exact predictions and numbers. She believes that if the government is telling something, there must be some basis for it.
Even Lovi Raj Gupta, executive dean of Science and Technology, Lovely Professional University (LPU) in Punjab agreed that surpassing an alarming number of 5.5 lakh cases is probable using mathematical modeling.
Gupta said that the certainty and accuracy of it would depend on the choice of model based on the variation of data. As this is time-series data, trends and seasonality play a crucial role. A statistical technique such as time series analysis is dealing with data in a series of certain time periods or intervals.
Gupta further added that, as we look at what was happening formerly and averaged it out and we could create the differencing pattern of the future on the basis of that. It could be done well by using time-series variation.
According to a research article published in the journal BMC Public Health, to understand how a virus spreads within the public, mathematical modeling can be used.
The significance of mathematical modeling lies in writing down a set of mathematical equations that mimic the truth. These equations are then solved for specific values of the parameters within the equations.
The explanations of the mathematical model can be improved when the information already known regarding the virus spread is used. The accessible data on the reported number of infections, the reported number of hospitalizations, or the confirmed number of deaths due to the infection can be used as an example.
While talking to the media after a meeting of the Delhi Disaster Management Authority, Sisodia referred to officials from the Centre as stating that there is no community transmission of COVID-19 in Delhi.
In a different conversation with the media, Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain added that the source of infection is unknown in almost half of the new cases being reported. He also told that community transmission in Delhi surely started a long time ago.
It doesn’t imply that the entire Delhi will have infections uniformly for community transmission to go on. Around 30,000 infections have happened in Delhi already and in accordance with the population of Delhi, it is surely community transmission, as told by him.
Bhattacharya added that, as by his understanding of the disease transmission, there is a small spike in the number of infections in local transmission. It gradually increased after that and surely at that point starts the community transmission.